Tensions have never been higher between two of the world’s largest global superpowers, China and the United States. From a simple trade war to a technological contest, the relationship between the two economies has dwindled over the years. However, the question begs to be asked; what does the future hold for the relationship between the two countries, especially in light of this current contest between the two? With this in mind, UTAR Tun Tan Cheng Lock Centre for Social and Policy Studies (TCLC) together with Centre for International Studies (CIS) and Belt and Road Strategic Research Centre (BRSRC) organised a talk titled “The Future of China-US Relations – Has China won?” on 13 August 2020 via Zoom.

The talk was given by Prof Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore and a veteran diplomat and author while moderating it was Dr Stephen Leong Mun Yoon, a Visiting Fellow. Dr Stephen is also the former Assistant Director-General of ISIS Malaysia. Prof Kishore highlighted the five main points in his talk. The points include forces that generated this contest, the mistakes made by both parties that have aggravated the contest, their strengths, how the world views this conflict, and preventions to reduce it.

Dr Stephen began the session by giving a brief introduction about Prof Kishore and his past achievements. Then, Prof Kishore shared, “There are three structural forces that started the conflict between the two countries. The first is the US’ efforts to stop China, where the former tried to thwart the rise of modern China. The second structural force is quite abnormal, as it refers to the Americans’ emotion called the Yellow Peril, a notion that misrepresents East Asians as an existential danger to the Western world. This emotion was ingrained subconsciously in the Western US psyche, especially after the re-emergence of China as a modern superpower. The third and final structural force is the Americans’ deep disappointment that China did not open up and become a democratic country as they expected. This has led the US to believe that China is a threat due to its remaining as a communist party regime,” said Prof Kishore.

Prof Kishore moved on to explain the mistakes made by both the US and China that have provoked this contest. He noted that the US made an error in launching a geopolitical campaign against China without a comprehensive long-term strategy, while China’s mistake was alienating the US business community with some of its trade practices. Afterwards, he talked about the two countries’ strengths. He said, “While China is an extremely strong country in its own right, the US has proven to be a much more powerful force that China must not underestimate. In the modern century, the US has become arguably the strongest society and has far greater power than any other nation. On the other hand, China has always been the best meritocracy around and they have a much better institution of governance when compared to the US, as seen in recent years.”

After speaking about the US’ and China’s strengths, Prof Kishore touched on how the world views the contest between the two big nations. He explained that most of the other countries would rather avoid taking part. Countries like Malaysia and India would rather take a neutral stance on the matter to avoid further complications. He lastly discussed the preventions that should be taken in order to stop this situation from spiralling out of control. “US and China’s main focus should be to improve the well-being of their people and they can more effectively do so by working together. Moreover, the world is currently facing even bigger challenges, the most prominent being COVID-19 and global warming. Thus, China and the US should be cooperating to battle climate change and improve the lives of humanity. Last but not least, the other 6 billion people in the world not living in the US and China, should come together to advise the two countries to join hands to avoid major eruption,” suggested Prof Kishore, when explaining the steps that should be taken to reduce this conflict.

The talk ended with a brief Q&A session, in which Prof Kishore responded to some of the participants’ intriguing questions.

A veteran diplomat, student of philosophy, and author of eight books, Kishore Mahbubani is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.

He was with the Singapore Foreign Service for 33 years (1971 to 2004). He had postings in Cambodia, Malaysia, Washington DC and New York, where he twice as Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN and served as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002. He was Permanent Secretary at the Foreign Ministry from 1993 to 1998. As a result of his excellent performance in his diplomatic career, he was conferred the Public Administration Medal (Gold) by the Singapore Government in 1998.

Kishore has received significant international recognition for his many accomplishments. The Foreign Policy Association Medal was awarded to him in New York in June 2004 with the following opening words in the citation: “A gifted diplomat, a student of history and philosophy, a provocative writer and an intuitive thinker”. He was listed as one of the top 100 public intellectuals in the world by Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines in September 2005, and included in the March 2009 Financial Times list of Top 50 individuals who would shape the debate on the future of capitalism. He was selected as one of Foreign Policy’s Top Global Thinkers in 2010 and 2011. In 2011, he was described as “the muse of the Asian century”. He was selected by Prospect magazine as one of the top 50 world thinkers for 2014.